Tariffs in 2026: How new trade rules impact your business

The number of tariff changes implemented by the Trump administration in 2025 caught many businesses off guard, as did the speed at which U.S. tariffs changed. Tariff policies in 2026 could be just as volatile. To remain in compliance and avoid disruptions, businesses must prepare to institute tariff changes quickly.

Attending Avalara Trade and Tariff Tuesdays webinars will help you keep your finger on the pulse of tariff changes, as will reading this blog; it will be updated throughout the year as new information becomes available.

• Tariffs will likely disrupt and reshape the global economy in 2026. President Trump continues to be a proponent of tariffs, and other countries may change their own tariff policies. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is also up for renewal.
• The Supreme Court is determining the fate of tariffs established under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). If it rules against the IEEPA tariffs, the government may be required to refund the revenue it’s collected under IEEPA. The administration will also seek other ways to impose tariffs.
• A growing number of countries are looking to reduce or eliminate their de minimis exemptions for low-value imports, as the U.S. did in 2025. Some countries could place fees on ecommerce shipments as well.

Here are some of the most impactful tariff changes of 2026, by month.

• The tariff on certain kitchen cabinets, upholstered furniture, and vanities did not increase to 30% on January 1, 2026, as previously announced. The current 25% tariff will remain in effect through 2026.
• The U.S. Department of Commerce (Commerce) reduced antidumping duties on Italian pasta. In September 2025, Commerce proposed raising antidumping duties to almost 92% for specified producers. Commerce has now lowered the duties to 2.26%, 9.09%, or 13.89%, depending on the producer. A final determination on the antidumping duties on pasta is expected in March 2026.
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced it will issue all refunds electronically via Automated Clearing House (ACH) starting February 6, 2026. Importers and other businesses that may receive refunds are encouraged to review the requirements and take any steps needed to prepare for this change.
• Harmonized System Update (HSU) 2543 has been updated. It now includes Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) updates that took effect January 1, 2026.
• The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has started reviewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on July 1, 2020. Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. must jointly review the USMCA by July 1, 2026. The USMCA is scheduled to end on July 1, 2036, unless all three member countries continue the agreement. The review will likely focus on automotive rules of origin, labor enforcement, dispute settlement, energy policy, and the surge in nearshoring and cross-border trade.
• The U.S. has agreed to exempt U.K.-origin pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical ingredients, and medical technology from Section 232 tariffs. U.S. tariffs on most South Korean goods are set at the most-favored-nation (MFN) rate or the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement tariff (a flat 15%), retroactively effective as of November 14, 2025; for specific products, there are also caps on additional duties. See the Federal Register for more details.
• Effective January 1, 2026, Thailand dropped its de minimis threshold from 1,500 baht to 1 baht, essentially eliminating it. The European Commission will introduce a €3 customs duty per item on ecommerce parcels valued below €150, starting July 1, 2026, while it works to eliminate de minimis entirely. Read more about de minimis.

The most effective way for businesses to comply with tariff changes in 2026 and beyond is to use technology that tracks and implements new policies for you. “In a world of constant tariff change,” says Shane Bogdan, Director of Cross-Border Sales at Avalara, “the advantage goes to businesses that act on real-time data, not those forced to react after costs have already changed. Avalara Cross-Border helps businesses stay ahead using the latest HS classifications, duty rates, and trade content, automatically applied across global transactions.” 

Avalara Cross-Border delivers real-time customs duty and import tax calculation using AI-driven 10-digit tariff classification codes for consumer products across more than 180 countries. It takes into account global rule and regulation content, including trade restrictions, de minimis thresholds, and country-level changes.

“I’d have to hire at least three people with tax experience to do the work that Avalara is doing for us,” says Jason Macatangay, CFO of Threadless. 

Learn about Avalara Cross-Border. 

Whatever tools you use to manage tariffs, it’s important to maintain meticulous records.   

Probably. In fiscal year 2025, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) issued 2,218 trade penalties and collected more than $216 billion in total duty, taxes, and fees. “CBP uses the latest data analytics tools to uncover tariff evasion schemes,” the agency explains, “including undervaluation, misclassification, transshipment, antidumping and countervailing duty violations, illegitimate shell companies, and ‘double dipping’ by claiming more than one tariff exemption to avoid paying revenue owed to the government.”

The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. If the court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, the U.S. government could be required to refund the duties collected under IEEPA. It will also likely look for other ways to impose new tariffs, such as via Section 232 or Section 301.

Yes. Among other policy changes, Canada has extended tariffs on certain U.S. imports and Mexico is setting new tariffs on China and other countries. Additionally, a number of nations are reevaluating their exemption for low-value imports; some are looking to lower the de minimis threshold, while others may eliminate de minimis altogether, as the U.S. has done.