The trade deal with China averts escalation — at least for now.
Yet the volatility of international trade continues, and it’s hard on businesses. Friday’s deal was announced less than 48 hours before new tariffs were set to take effect. It’s hard for businesses to plan when no one knows what to plan for. Over the past 18 months, higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have been announced, delayed, and reset. Some have been instituted, others abandoned.
Furthermore, the list of products excluded from the tariffs is in constant flux. For example, new exclusions for List 1 were granted in December 2018 and on eight separate occasions in 2019; exclusions to List 2 were granted three times in 2019. The exclusions themselves can be amended, and often are.
Meanwhile, China has increased tariffs on American goods as it has decreased tariffs on goods from other nations. And there’s trouble brewing on America’s western and southern fronts. The U.S. has threatened to increase tariffs on more than $2 billion in French goods, including Champagne, cheese, and handbags, in retaliation for France’s Digital Services Tax. It’s also threatening to expand tariffs on other members of the European Union, including Austria, Italy, and Turkey, for similar reasons. Tariffs on metals from Argentina and Brazil may also be restored.
If the U.S. goes through with establishing and reinstating these tariffs, the European Union and other countries could respond with retaliatory tariffs.
In other words, while Friday’s deal with China may grant some respite, the turmoil with trade continues.