Whether or to what extent such tax incentives will lead to a sufficient increase in housing stock and reduction in housing prices is unknown.
“In a tight housing market with high prices and barriers to creating new supply, removing supply from the long-term housing market could harm residents by raising housing costs,” observes the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO), which has studied short-term vacation rentals and housing costs in Hawaii. “However, we don’t know exactly how much STRs impact rents and home prices.”
STRs do make up a “large share of total housing” in Hawaii, especially in certain areas, and UHERO says “the economic logic linking STRs to increases in the cost of housing is fairly unequivocal … it is the size of the impact that is difficult to estimate.”
Affordable housing is essential, of course, but so is tax revenue — and reducing tax revenue in the hopes of securing more housing could have unintended consequences down the road. “Increasing affordable housing is so important to the state they’re will to spend current money to reduce future money, doubling down on negative money,” says Scott Peterson, VP of Government Relations at Avalara.
“Converting short-term rentals to long-term rentals will decrease tax collections from short-term rentals as well as property tax revenue,” adds Pam Knudsen, Senior Director of Compliance Services at Avalara. “The assumption is these houses will be affordable for those needing housing."
It’s a big assumption.
There is “quasi-experimental evidence” from Los Angeles County that STR ordinances can reduce STR listings by 50%, housing prices by 2%, and rents by 2%. Using this and other research, UHERO estimates median home prices on Oahu would be 4%–6% lower than they currently are if there were no STRs on the island.
Even so, UHERO admits “Oahu would still suffer from extremely high home prices.”
Hawaii has the most regulated housing market in the country, according to the Legislature. “Various studies have also concluded that housing regulations slow the rate of construction and lead to higher prices.” So while regulating STRs could help curb the high cost of housing, the state will likely need to use other tactics as well.
House Bill 1630, which would prohibit county zoning ordinances from not allowing two or more additional dwelling units on an urban residential lot, offers one possible alternative. But some lawmakers in Hawaii are still trying to restrict the number of vacation rentals in the state.